After Expulsions, Options Dwindle in Russia and West’s ‘Diplomatic War’
Numerous rounds of diplomatic expulsions have left Russia and the West with little capacity for more such largely symbolic measures, setting the stage for less predictable forms of escalation as the rift between the two sides grows, Russian government advisers and analysts say.
“There is still room for more battles in this diplomatic war, but it won’t remain a diplomatic war for much longer,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads a Kremlin advisory body on foreign and defense policy.
In the latest tit-for-tat measures between Moscow and Western capitals after the poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the U.K., Moscow this week said it would expel 60 U.S. diplomats from Russia in response to similar U.S. actions taken for Moscow’s alleged role in the nerve-agent attack. On Friday, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned almost two dozen European ambassadors to order more ejections and a further reduction in staff at the U.K.’s missions in Russia.
The White House laid the Skripal attack squarely on Moscow’s doorstep, though most of the criticism has come from top administration officials rather than from President Donald Trump himself. And top U.S. officials say they believe the Russian government is continuing its interference in coming U.S. elections.
The U.S. and its allies have indicated that they could take further measures against Russia over the nerve-agent attack, in which Moscow denies any involvement. U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman said earlier this week Washington may consider seizing Russian assets in the U.S.
The Trump administration said last month it wasn’t planning to slap a ban on the purchases of Russian sovereign debt, but analysts and congressional aides have said since the Skripal attack that the administration could take measures to slowly ratchet up financial pressure on Moscow.
It might start out by targeting new issuances of a certain maturities, for example, or banning U.S. purchases on primary markets, but allowing secondary market trades and non-U.S. citizens to buy Russian debt. It could also hit select equity markets.
“There’s plenty of room to escalate on financial sanctions,” said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. State Department official now at the Atlantic Council.
While the administration has resisted more sanctions of that nature, there is bipartisan support on Capitol Hill for considering legislation that could require it to toughen sanctions against Moscow, including those on its debt, according to Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Russia’s lack of economic clout abroad would limit the Kremlin’s ability to strike back in kind, said Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, potentially leading it to retaliate in riskier ways, such as stepping up confrontation over Syria or in cyberspace.
“I would expect Russia to hurt the U.S. where it hurts most,” he said. “I don’t know what those measures could be, but they will be designed to be asymmetrical and painful.”
As ties between Russia and the West deteriorate, Mr. Trenin said, the U.S. could put more pressure on Europe to cut its consumption of Russian gas and to shelve plans to build another pipeline that would deepen its dependency on Russian gas.
Russia’s relations with the U.S. in particular have fallen to a post-Soviet low following accusations that Russia meddled in the 2016 presidential election. Russian President Vladimir Putin has rallied support among Russians, boasting of a nuclear arsenal that could penetrate even the U.S. antimissile defenses.
Russia has ordered cuts of more than 800 U.S. diplomatic staff and local employees in the country beginning last year. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russia in late 2016, last year and earlier this month for meddling in the 2016 presidential elections. The U.S. is represented in Russia today by about a third of the staff it had a year ago.
Both sides have ratcheted up sanctions and countersanctions as confrontations over alleged Russian interference in the West, and Russia’s indignant denials, have heated up. Moscow last year cut access to several U.S. diplomatic properties in Russia in response to the Washington shutting down Moscow’s San Francisco consulate and other properties.
In the latest set of moves, Russia announced the closure of the U.S. consulate in St. Petersburg—its largest official presence outside Moscow—after Washington ordered the closure of Russia’s comparatively less important consulate in Seattle.
Moscow was expecting the U.S. to possibly shut Russia’s New York consulate in retaliation, Mr. Lukyanov said.
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has warned about the possibility of more economic sanctions in a country where Russian money has penetrated the upper echelons of British society.
Analysts said any steps against Russia’s financial interests could prompt Moscow to respond where it does have clout, such as in Syria, where both Russia and the U.S. have troops supporting opposing sides. Last month, in a rare direct confrontation, a U.S. airstrike killed an undefined number of Russian contractors in resource-rich eastern Syria.
Earlier this month, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s armed forces stepped up rhetoric, warning that Russia would respond with force if the lives of its servicemen in Syria were threatened.
In further sabre-rattling Friday, Russia released footage of a test of Sarmat, its new nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile.
“If anything, the impact of four years of sanctions on Russia was only to consolidate anti-U.S. factions in the political establishment,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s position on Moscow has been fueled by some of his comments and by evidence uncovered by a special counsel investigation into the Trump campaign’s outreach to Russia ahead of the 2016 election. Earlier this month, after the Skripal poisoning, the president was broadly criticized for congratulating Mr. Putin for winning re-election in a vote many independent observers considered unfair.
Responding to that criticism, Mr. Trump said he needed to maintain good terms with Mr. Putin because the U.S. and Russia still must cooperate on areas of mutual interest—such as North Korea, Syria and Iran—despite escalating tensions. “Getting along with Russia (and others) is a good thing, not a bad thing,” he wrote on Twitter.
Source:-https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-expulsions-options-dwindle-in-russia-and-wests-diplomatic-war-1522438589
