MLB win totals: How we see the 2018 season unfolding
You’d think projecting win totals for all 30 Major League Baseball teams in early February would be a perilous task.
And you’d think that task would be all the more difficult in this unprecedented winter, when 100 perfectly employable, in some cases elite, ballplayers are sitting at home, victims of (pick one) front office actuaries/collusive thoughts among billionaires/their own stubborn nature.
Yet if 2017 proved anything, it’s that the Tanking Era we’re in the heart of makes this job much easier.
Our win totals – comprised of season simulations provided by six writers and editors – correctly forecast all six division winners last year. It’s not because we’re brilliant – reader comments and email indisputably put that notion to rest – but simply because at a time when so few teams are trying to win, the chance that a “surprise team” messes up the calculus is greatly diminished.
It’s also why in 2018, we envision five of six division winners repeating, with the sixth merely swapping wild-card and division champion roles.
Certainly, we could be proven wrong, particularly if Jake Arrieta or J.D. Martinez signs with a team on the fringe of contention.
More likely, the chalk will come through, which is not necessarily great for baseball.
Due to the grim nature of this off-season, we will likely revise and re-release these totals once all the free agent dust settles – which at this point figures to be mid- to late March. Still, don’t expect many big changes at the top, though there should be incremental gains from clubs whose rosters are still very much under construction.
But for now, this is it, and it’s not so bad. Our season stimulation produced a result that created one-game playoffs to determine the second wild card in both leagues, and how fun would that be?
Indeed, for all the saber-rattling and ugliness this winter, baseball has a way of curing itself, despite the meddlings of its privileged overlords. And here’s how we see that unfolding, with division-by-division explanations:
Source:-Â https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/02/06/mlb-win-totals-2018/310313002/
