{"id":64619,"date":"2018-05-02T09:22:57","date_gmt":"2018-05-02T09:22:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=64619"},"modified":"2018-05-02T09:22:57","modified_gmt":"2018-05-02T09:22:57","slug":"derby-favorite-justify-is-being-compared-to-american-pharoah-but-can-he-justify-the-hype","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/sports\/derby-favorite-justify-is-being-compared-to-american-pharoah-but-can-he-justify-the-hype.html","title":{"rendered":"Derby favorite Justify is being compared to American Pharoah, but can he justify the hype"},"content":{"rendered":"

Derby favorite Justify is being compared to American Pharoah, but can he justify the hype<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Upon my arrival at Churchill Downs this week, it took all of 10 minutes before a longtime racetrack guy casually dropped the notion that Kentucky Derby favorite Justify might be another American Pharoah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, it\u2019s important to understand one thing about the racetrack. Hyperbole about racing\u2019s Next Great Star is as easy to find as an empty beer cup or a story about almost hitting the Pick Six. In the 28 years I\u2019ve been handicapping the Derby, the litany of superhorses-in-waiting who flopped on race day is long and undistinguished.<\/span><\/p>\n

In his 1992 pre-Derby column in Sports Illustrated, the late, great William Nack wrote: \u201cA score of continental horsemen regard the French-trained colt Arazi as the most brilliant racehorse to appear in Europe in the last two decades, and not a few of their American counterparts view him as the second coming of Secretariat.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2005, these words were written in the New York Times about George Steinbrenner’s Bellamy Road, who had won the Wood Memorial prep race by 17 1\/2 lengths: \u201cBellamy Road, at 5-2 in the morning line, is being projected as a one-of-a-kind horse perfectly positioned to capture a once-in-a-lifetime race. His head-down, freight-train-style morning gallops have been compared with those of the great Seattle Slew.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\nBellamy Road stuck his nose in front at the quarter-pole before fading precipitously to seventh place.<\/span><\/p>\n

That kind of thing should breed plenty of skepticism about grand proclamations for 3-year-olds, particularly one as lightly raced as Justify, who is a mere 3-for-3 and didn\u2019t even run as a 2-year-old, which every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 has done.<\/span><\/p>\n

But at Churchill Downs this week, the hype around Justify is barely being harnessed. As he made his debut on the track Tuesday after flying in from California the previous afternoon, dozens of reporters and cameras followed him. The mob of people watching his post-gallop bath outside of Barn 33 has dwarfed the crowd around any other horse in the race. And at the post-position draw a few hours later, longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia made him the 3-1 favorite.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis was easy,\u201d Battaglia said. \u201cAfter the Santa Anita Derby, it looked to me like this was the favorite.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s little doubt about how dominating Justify\u2019s effort was that day, even though his final margin of victory over Bolt D\u2019Oro was just three lengths. He toyed with the field, leading through a comfortable half mile and then pulling away at the top of the stretch with very little urging from jockey Mike Smith, who basically put him on cruise control for the final 1\/8 of a mile.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even before that win, which confirmed for everybody what kind of talent Bob Baffert had on his hands, the real insiders were touting Justify as the potential \u201cit\u201d horse as early as his first race on Feb. 18 at Santa Anita against other maidens, which are horses who have yet to win.<\/span><\/p>\n

Randy Moss, the longtime analyst for NBC Sports, called it the best career debut he\u2019d ever seen and instantly e-mailed his broadcast partner Jerry Bailey, the former Hall of Fame jockey, touting Justify as the potential Derby winner.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI wasn\u2019t the only one who thought that. It was no great observation,\u201d Moss said. \u201cIt was fantastic by the clock. It was an amazing race visually. I think most people that follow it closely were blown away by how he looked.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And yet, Justify may really need to be as good as American Pharoah to overcome the circumstances working against him in this race. While the so-called \u201cCurse of Apollo\u201d is overstated, the fundamentals of the Kentucky Derby haven\u2019t changed in many years. To win as a 3-year-old at 1 1\/4 miles requires not only good luck, but stamina and physical toughness to overcome a rugged 20-horse field.<\/span><\/p>\n

Generally speaking, horses that have a foundation of racing at age 2 are at an advantage in all those areas, giving them more preparation at a foundation of fitness to run such a long way at Churchill Downs. Justify\u2019s races are not only few in number, but they\u2019ve all been exceptionally easy for him, which can be a major negative if he gets jostled around in traffic or has to look another horse in the eye, not knowing how to react.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even American Pharoah, who was lightly raced by historical standards with just five starts before the 2015 Kentucky Derby, had run three times as a 2-year-old and showed his brilliance that December in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes going 1 1\/16 miles against top competition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Then again, if anyone can get a horse ready for the Derby on a non-traditional timeline, it\u2019s probably Baffert. Though he gets a new crop of high-priced horse flesh in his barn every summer, it\u2019s not an accident he\u2019s won the Derby four times.<\/span><\/p>\n

And when Justify arrived in his barn last December, with all the big 2-year-old races already passed, it didn\u2019t take Baffert long to start thinking he could still make it to the Derby with him.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhen I worked him the first time at Santa Anita, he did something really incredible in the morning,\u201d Baffert said. \u201cThe time wasn\u2019t that fast, but just the way he did it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s nothing like knowing you have a horse like that and you go, man. You just know this is the goods right here. This is the goods.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But Justify has to be good on Saturday \u2014 really good \u2014 to, ahem, justify the amount of hype he\u2019s getting this week. There\u2019s decades of history suggesting he probably isn\u2019t. But one way or another, we\u2019re going to find out.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:-https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/sports\/college\/columnist\/dan-wolken\/2018\/05\/01\/justify-being-compared-triple-crown-champ-american-pharoah\/570306002\/<\/span><\/p>\n

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