{"id":63925,"date":"2018-04-24T06:28:41","date_gmt":"2018-04-24T06:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=63925"},"modified":"2018-04-24T06:28:41","modified_gmt":"2018-04-24T06:28:41","slug":"the-shadow-war-between-israel-and-iran-takes-center-stage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/world-news\/the-shadow-war-between-israel-and-iran-takes-center-stage.html","title":{"rendered":"The shadow war between Israel and Iran takes center stage"},"content":{"rendered":"

The shadow war between Israel and Iran takes center stage<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

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The rumblings of an open conflict between Israel and Iran in Syria are growing louder. When President Trump launched yet another one-off missile salvo against the Syrian regime, it came on the heels of a suspected April 9 Israeli strike on an Iranian facility at a Syrian air base, which drew howls of condemnation from the regime’s patrons in Moscow and Tehran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though Israel didn’t acknowledge responsibility for the attack, it fit a familiar pattern. Since 2012, the Israelis are believed to have launched more than 100 strikes on suspected Iranian-linked positions in Syria. Israeli officials privately argue that these measures are necessary to prevent a permanent Iranian threat on their borders and stymie the flow of weaponry to Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cNo matter the price, we will not allow a noose to form around us,\u201d Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israel Radio over the weekend. But he cautioned against talk of outright hostilities. \u201cI hope not,” he said when asked whether war was imminent. \u201cI think that our primary role is to prevent war, and that requires concrete, real deterrence as well as readiness to act.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made similar appeals for calm in a Sunday interview with CBS News, though he accused the Israelis of escalating \u201ctension by violating Syrian airspace.”<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI do not believe that we are headed towards regional war. But I do believe that, unfortunately, Israel has continued its violations with international law, hoping to be able to do it with impunity because of the U.S. support and trying to find smokescreens to hide behind,\u201d Zarif said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, Zarif warned that Israel was playing a risky game. \u201cThey should expect that if they continue to violate territorial integrity of other states, there’ll be consequences,” he said. \u201cThe easiest answer would be to stop \u2014 to stop these acts of aggression, to stop these incursions.”<\/span><\/p>\n

But the Israelis have made clear that an entrenched Iranian presence in Syria marks a new red line. They point to the new threat of Iranian drones, potentially armed with explosives, entering Israeli airspace, as well as the old threat of rockets launched from southern Lebanon. The April 9 strike, according to one account, was Israel’s first direct attack on Iranian equipment and personnel and killed a senior Iranian drone commander.<\/span><\/p>\n

Last week, the Israeli military leaked details and satellite images of the existence of an Iranian \u201cair force” in Syria, including civilian planes they claimed were ferrying shipments of arms. The leak was supposed to signal to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organization that dominates Iran’s foreign policy decisions, that Israel had new targets already in sight should the Iranians or their proxies attack.<\/span><\/p>\n

From the Iranian perspective, their presence in Syria is a legitimate defense of their beleaguered ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. And they see their capacity to threaten Israel from next door as a potential deterrent against a long-standing regional foe.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIsraeli leaders frequently threaten to bomb Iran, so having strong military proxies near Israel\u2019s borders gives Iran some protection,” wrote Ben Hubbard and David Halbfinger of the New York Times. \u201cIf Israel attacks Iran, the thinking goes, it knows it can expect a painful response from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and perhaps from other militias now operating in Syria.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The deepening tensions come at a time of growing discontent within the Islamic Republic. A tanking economy has blown the lid on popular frustration with the regime and even prompted Zarif’s putative boss, President Hassan Rouhani, to complain about the costly war effort in Syria. But the prospect of broader confrontation with Israel \u2014 and the likely upcoming drama over Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers \u2014 may persuade regime hard-liners that now is the time to circle the wagons.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe shadow war has come to light after the decision by the Iranian leadership to proceed with the IRGC\u2019s plans to establish permanent bases in Syria. This was not a unanimous decision,” wrote Anshel Pfeffer in the Times of London. \u201cThe faction in Tehran led by the country\u2019s president, Hassan Rouhani, is in favor of investing in Iran\u2019s domestic economy the huge amounts of money these bases will cost. But the IRGC has the ear of the nation\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and it is keen to capitalize on the investment it has made in propping up the Assad regime for the past seven years.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The way forward is treacherous. \u201cIran is determined to entrench its positions in Syria, and Israel is determined to prevent them,” said Amos Yadlin, a former commander of Israeli military intelligence, to Pfeffer.<\/span><\/p>\n

He suggested that Russia, whose forces help prop up the regime’s air defenses and whose diplomats are key interlocutors to both the Iranians and the Israelis, will play a critical role. \u201cConflict is inevitable unless Putin steps in to prevent it,” Yadlin said. But recent events suggest that the Russians have limited influence over Iran and are more concerned about reinforcing the Syrian regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, some foreign policy figures in Washington seem keen on letting Israel continue its covert campaign against the Iranians. They see Israeli strikes as necessary at a time when President Trump wants to disengage from the Syrian conflict and outsource the stabilization of the country to Iran\u2019s Sunni Arab rivals.<\/span><\/p>\n

But other experts contend that this does not amount to a real strategy. \u201cThere is a pathway to containing and deterring Iran in Syria … but it requires more than just Israel\u2019s itchy trigger finger and cheerleading from the sidelines by Arab autocracies,” wrote Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution, who argued for more robust diplomatic engagement from the Trump administration and cautioned against alienating allies by pulling out of the nuclear deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

In February, the International Crisis Group issued a report warning that the current atmosphere of tensions made \u201cmiscalculation more likely\u201d in Syria. Since then, the risks of an escalation have only intensified.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Source:-https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/worldviews\/wp\/2018\/04\/24\/the-shadow-war-between-israel-and-iran-takes-center-stage\/?utm_term=.9651d33626da<\/span><\/p>\n

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