{"id":58762,"date":"2018-02-14T04:45:14","date_gmt":"2018-02-14T04:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=58762"},"modified":"2018-02-14T04:45:14","modified_gmt":"2018-02-14T04:45:14","slug":"in-third-bellwether-contest-florida-democrats-again-carry-the-day-and-hope-for-a-blue-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/news\/in-third-bellwether-contest-florida-democrats-again-carry-the-day-and-hope-for-a-blue-wave.html","title":{"rendered":"In third bellwether contest, Florida Democrats again carry the day and hope for a blue wave"},"content":{"rendered":"

In third bellwether contest, Florida Democrats again carry the day and hope for a blue wave<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

For the third Florida bellwether election in a row, the Republican candidate lost to the Democrat, giving activists and elites in both parties a sense that the GOP\u2019s political grip is slipping in the nation\u2019s largest swing state heading into President Donald Trump\u2019s first midterm election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aside from her big 7.4 percentage-point win, what made Margaret Good\u2019s victory Tuesday night over Republican James Buchanan so significant was that it took place in Florida\u2019s 72nd House District. It had been held by a Republican in Sarasota County, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 12,000, or about 10 percentage points. Buchanan, the son of local Congressman Vern Buchanan, also had an advantage in name ID.<\/span><\/p>\n

And Trump had carried the district by 4.6 percentage points in a state that he won by just 1.2 points in November.<\/span><\/p>\n

But now Trump is too toxic even for Sarasota, say Democrats, who made sure to figuratively hang the unpopular president around the neck of Buchanan as well as the Republicans who lost in the two other recent bellwether contests: Florida\u2019s 40th Senate District in Miami-Dade and St. Petersburg\u2019s mayoral race. Both of those elections had Democratic-leaning electorates with significant minority populations, unlike the 72nd in Sarasota.<\/span><\/p>\n

In all of the races, Democrats made sure to use Vice President Joe Biden as a surrogate.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is beyond a trend. The results are in. Republicans have a real problem in this state,\u201d said Tom Eldon, a Democratic pollster who surveyed the race.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the bellwether seat,\u201d Eldon said. \u201cThis seat in Sarasota is the Republicans\u2019 backyard. Anytime Democrats win a seat like this it\u2019s great for Democrats. It happened in 1992. It happened in 2006. And it happened in this seat. This is a bellwether for bad Republican years.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And it\u2019s not just in Florida. Good\u2019s win was the 36th Republican legislative seat in the nation that a Democrat has won since 2016, a feat partly attributable to Trump\u2019s toxicity and to the reinvigorated Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which helped in Good\u2019s race and the Florida Senate contest in Miami-Dade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though Democrats have seen successes throughout the nation, including Virginia\u2019s governor\u2019s race and Alabama\u2019s U.S. Senate race, Eldon cautioned against extrapolating too much from those races.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a state notorious for close election results, Democrats and Republicans alike said there\u2019s only so much this race means heading into the November elections, when Floridians decide whether to keep Sen. Bill Nelson as they vote on open seats for governor, attorney general, agriculture commissioner and chief financial officer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Republicans hope that the worst of Trump\u2019s bad approval ratings are over and that Floridians will continue to see the state on the right track under Republicans. Gov. Rick Scott and the Florida Cabinet are all Republican and the GOP controls the state Legislature as well. Scott\u2019s approval rating is higher than ever and he\u2019s widely expected to challenge Nelson.<\/span><\/p>\n

For all of the contested Democratic victories, though, Republicans point out that there has been no overwhelming \u201cblue wave.\u201d Republicans came out to vote. But there was a catch. Many voted for Good in the district, which has a reputation as a bastion for environmentally conscious establishment Republicans with Midwest sensibilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis was less a blue wave than a red revolt,\u201d said Anthony Pedicini, a top Republican consultant for Buchanan. \u201cRepublicans turned out on Election Day, and looks like there was little benefit to our campaign.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

One Republican, who didn\u2019t want to speak publicly against his party\u2019s candidate, said earlier Tuesday that Democrats had another advantage in the Sarasota House seat: \u201cBuchanan was a terrible candidate. And candidates matter.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Republicans were also bitter that two of their candidates for governor, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and Rep. Ron DeSantis, did little to help Buchanan. Meanwhile, the leading Democratic candidates for governor put aside their differences and pitched in for Good.<\/span><\/p>\n

The only major national figure to help Buchanan: Trump\u2019s former campaign manager, lobbyist Corey Lewandowski, who was kicked out of Trump\u2019s inner circle before he even seized the GOP nomination for president in 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

Republicans fretted about the size of Good\u2019s win in Sarasota. It was far larger than state Sen. Annette Taddeo\u2019s win in Miami-Dade and St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman\u2019s victory. Republicans believed that Good was more of an outlier and noted that they won two other recent special elections for state House seats in the Orlando and Tampa areas, though Democrats didn\u2019t contest them seriously.<\/span><\/p>\n

And because Republicans dominate the levers of power in Florida, they have greater financial resources that can be brought to bear in statewide races and in the multiple contested legislative seats in November. Democrats acknowledge that they\u2019ve been able to win these recent contested elections because they\u2019re able to concentrate their limited fire on one race at a time.<\/span><\/p>\n

Midterm elections have cursed Florida Democrats as well. Regardless of who\u2019s in office, they\u2019ve consistently lost them statewide for more than two decades. Nelson has been the lone exception.<\/span><\/p>\n

But, Eldon said, there\u2019s only so much happy talk Republicans can engage in. Eldon said he remembered how, in 2010 and 2014, Democrats were losing in special elections as a prelude to being crushed during the midterm general elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRepublicans were saying in 2010 what we\u2019re saying now in special elections. We\u2019re seeing the same thing,\u201d Eldon said. \u201cIf Republicans can\u2019t win in Sarasota, it says a lot about the party\u2019s chances.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:-\u00a0https:\/\/www.politico.com\/states\/florida\/story\/2018\/02\/13\/in-third-bellwether-contest-florida-democrats-again-carry-the-day-and-hope-for-a-blue-wave-251975<\/span><\/p>\n

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