{"id":51169,"date":"2017-11-08T05:36:14","date_gmt":"2017-11-08T05:36:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=51169"},"modified":"2017-11-08T05:36:14","modified_gmt":"2017-11-08T05:36:14","slug":"would-donald-trump-win-an-election-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/news\/would-donald-trump-win-an-election-today.html","title":{"rendered":"Would Donald Trump win an election today?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Would Donald Trump win an election today?<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Would Donald Trump win a presidential election again today? Five experts – and a bookmaker – have their say.<\/span>
\nThere are many words to describe the 12 months since Mr Trump was elected.<\/span><\/p>\n

Smooth is not one of them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mr Trump won despite getting almost three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since then, there have been sackings, spats with NFL players, and sabre-rattling with North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

His approval rating has fallen, and a special counsel is investigating the election itself.<\/span><\/p>\n

But his supporters say a booming economy and improved border security prove they were right to take a gamble on an outsider.<\/span><\/p>\n

So would the president win again now?<\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict 1: Trump is in trouble<\/span><\/p>\n

After shocking the world in November 2016, Mr Trump sent Allan Lichtman a handwritten note.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Professor – congrats – good call,” it said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The note was written on a print-out of a Washington Post article from 23 September 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the article, Professor Lichtman said that – despite what most experts thought – Mr Trump was heading for the White House.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the ninth presidential election in a row, he called it right. So how would Mr Trump do in a hypothetical election today?<\/span><\/p>\n

“There are probably enough negative keys to predict his defeat,” says Professor Lichtman, who teaches at American University.<\/span><\/p>\n

The professor uses 13 “keys” to predict elections. They focus on the incumbent party, and cover the economy, scandal, the candidates’ charisma, and other areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is “very difficult” to call an early, hypothetical election, Professor Lichtman says. For example: one of his “keys” is the mid-term elections, which haven’t happened yet.<\/span><\/p>\n

But he says things aren’t looking good for the president, with a lack of significant achievements and “scandals piling up”, although the economy is currently a positive.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mr Trump himself is also a drag on his chances, he says. “The very, very negative personal ratings would count against him.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The professor also downplays the importance of his opponent. “Only one of my 13 keys has anything to do with the opposing candidate,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

He thinks the scandals are so great, he wrote a book predicting Mr Trump’s impeachment. Does he stand by that?<\/span><\/p>\n

“You bet I’m standing by it,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict 2: Trump would beat Clinton, but could lose to a different Democrat<\/span><\/p>\n

The Trafalgar Group – a small polling firm from Atlanta, Georgia – didn’t just forecast Trump’s win. They forecast the margin.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, one year on, how would a rematch go?<\/span><\/p>\n

“If it’s the same match-up, I don’t think there’s any question,” says Robert Cahaly, the group’s senior strategist.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Trump would win again.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Trafalgar has been “in the field” in 12 states this year, and always measures Trump’s approval.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Trump is still doing things that energise the people who brought him to the White House,” says Mr Cahaly. Such as?<\/span><\/p>\n

“The NFL thing. Anyone who thinks the NFL thing has hurt Trump among the people who won the swing states is completely crazy.”<\/span><\/p>\n

But what about the Russian links? The special counsel indicting Mr Trump’s former campaign chairman?<\/span><\/p>\n

“There are strong Russian connections with Hillary now,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

“The idea there’s something fishy going on with Hillary, if nothing else, has counter-balanced any accusation against Trump.”<\/span><\/p>\n

But there is a caveat.<\/span><\/p>\n

“My personal opinion has always been the Republican Party was very lucky Joe Biden wasn’t the nominee.<\/span><\/p>\n

“He appeals to the same demographic as Trump. It would have been a battle royal in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Presentational grey line<\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict 3: Don’t rule out another Trump victory<\/span><\/p>\n

Since 20 January, Gallup has carried out a daily poll, asking Americans whether they approve of the job the president is doing.<\/span><\/p>\n

The numbers aren’t great.<\/span><\/p>\n

From June, Mr Trump’s approval rating has usually been below 40%. On 29 October, it was just 33%.<\/span><\/p>\n

But, says Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief, that doesn’t mean he would lose a hypothetical election.<\/span><\/p>\n

“He may be trending down a little, but if you look at the big picture from March or so, there’s not a dramatic change,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallup also tracked Mr Trump’s popularity before the election. “He’s unpopular now and he was unpopular then,” says Mr Newport.<\/span><\/p>\n

How Donald Trump won the presidency<\/span><\/p>\n

“He lost the popular vote (in 2016) and he managed to squeak in the electoral college.<\/span><\/p>\n

“I wouldn’t rule out the possibility, with the same opponent, he could pull that off again.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Mr Newport, however, will not put his neck on the line.<\/span><\/p>\n

“I absolutely would not say he would win,” says Mr Newport. “I neither confirm nor deny.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict 4: The Democrats need someone special to beat Trump<\/span><\/p>\n

Helmut Norpoth – a political science professor at Stony Brook University in New York – also forecast Mr Trump’s win in 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

“If you look at his approval rating, it’s abysmal,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

“It’s the worst any president has had [at this stage in his presidency]. It looks like a long shot – but it was a long shot for him to win in the first place.”<\/span><\/p>\n

So – in a hypothetical election against Hillary – who would he put his money on?<\/span><\/p>\n

“I would bet that he would win again,” he says. “He would beat her again.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Like Robert Cahaly from the Trafalgar Group, he thinks a different Democrat could have a better chance. But he doesn’t know who that might be.<\/span><\/p>\n

“I think Democrats don’t realise what kind of a special candidate they had in Barack Obama,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

“They had Bill Clinton, they had Obama, but these guys don’t come around every year. I don’t know who, at this point, would have that kind of appeal.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Presentational grey line<\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict 5: Trump would beat Clinton, but not Joe Biden<\/span><\/p>\n

The answer to Professor Norpoth’s question, says Professor Barbara Perry, might be the previous vice-president.<\/span><\/p>\n

“If tomorrow we put Donald Trump up against Joe Biden, I think Joe Biden would win,” says Professor Perry, the director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem with that plan, she says, is that Mr Biden will be 77 when the 2020 election is due. So if Mr Trump faced Mrs Clinton tomorrow?<\/span><\/p>\n

“I would say, against Hillary, he would win,” she says.<\/span><\/p>\n

“His win (in 2016) was multi-causal of course. But what ultimately put him over the top was the Hillary factor in those three states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Presentational grey line<\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict 6: Trump would beat Hillary – so Democrats need to think differently<\/span><\/p>\n

On 18 October last year – almost three weeks before the election – Irish bookmaker Paddy Power was sure of the result. So sure, in fact, they paid out early.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sadly for them, they called it wrong: they paid out on Hillary.<\/span><\/p>\n

Their mistake cost them $4.5m. Since then, they’ve appointed a Head of Trump Betting, Joe Lee.<\/span><\/p>\n

“On election day last year, Trump went in as a 4\/1 underdog,” he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

“That more or less gave him a 20% chance. If we were going to market again, tomorrow or next week, we’d probably be closer to 50-50.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump has been strong on terrorism in the last few days, and on other topics that resonate with his core supporters, he says.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, in the hypothetical election – Trump v Hillary part two – where would this bookmaker place his money?<\/span><\/p>\n

“Oh, I’d absolutely go with Trump,” he says. “No question or doubt about it.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Like the professors and pollsters, Paddy Power thinks Mr Trump’s chances are “all down to the calibre of candidate the Democrats roll out”.<\/span><\/p>\n

The bookmaker has taken money on – among others – Mark Zuckerberg and Oprah Winfrey, while the Hawaiian congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has been backed into 20\/1.<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, though, Mr Trump is calling the shots.<\/span><\/p>\n

The bad news for the president?<\/span><\/p>\n

Paddy Power has him 5\/4 to be impeached – down from 9\/4 before the special counsel’s indictments.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:-\u00a0http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-us-canada-41839706<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t <\/div><\/div>\n\t\t