{"id":14400,"date":"2016-11-04T12:14:58","date_gmt":"2016-11-04T12:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=14400"},"modified":"2016-11-04T12:19:55","modified_gmt":"2016-11-04T12:19:55","slug":"trump-shows-early-voting-strength-in-ohio-iowa-in-closing-daysom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/elections\/trump-shows-early-voting-strength-in-ohio-iowa-in-closing-daysom.html","title":{"rendered":"Trump Shows Early Voting Strength in Ohio, Iowa in Closing Daysom"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump Shows Early Voting Strength in Ohio, Iowa in Closing Days<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Trump Shows Early Voting Strength in Ohio, Iowa in Closing <\/strong>Daysom:-<\/strong> As the U.S. presidential race heads into its final weekend, Donald Trump is showing strength in Iowa and Ohio pre-Election Day voting, while Hillary Clinton\u2019s advantage in early balloting looks stronger in North Carolina and Nevada, a Bloomberg Politics analysis shows.<\/span><\/p>\n

Democrats and Republicans in Florida, the biggest swing state, have returned ballots in nearly even proportions. There have been about 2.6 million votes cast there so far, exceeding the level recorded during the entire early voting period four years ago and with one final weekend of balloting remaining.<\/span><\/p>\n

Early, in-person voting is nearly complete in many of the battlegrounds states. It ends Friday in Nevada, this weekend in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida, and on Monday in Iowa. Those states, among the main targets for Trump and Clinton, have a total of 74 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. Trump needs to win at least four of those states to have a path to victory.<\/span><\/p>\n

Clinton, in particular, is putting heavy emphasis on early voting, as she seeks to mimic the success of President Barack Obama\u2019s winning 2008 and 2012 campaigns. Republicans have historically shown up in greater numbers on Election Day, and early votes by Democrats can counteract that advantage.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nationally, more than 34 million early votes have already been cast, either by mail or in person, according to Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the U.S. Elections Project, which updates the statistics daily. As much as 40 percent of this year\u2019s vote is expected to be cast before the Nov. 8 election, a proportion that grows every four years as more states and voters embrace the convenience.<\/span><\/p>\n

E-Mail Review<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s disclosure of renewed scrutiny by the FBI of Clinton\u2019s e-mail while she was secretary of state — revealed in a letter to lawmakers last Friday by agency Director James Comey — doesn\u2019t appear to be depressing the early voting of Democrats, or boosting it among Republicans, McDonald said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe haven\u2019t seen any drop off,\u201d he said. \u201cThere is no evidence that there has been a shift in the trajectory of early voting based on that letter.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Based on his analysis of the early vote and polling in Nevada and Colorado, McDonald said those two states \u201clook solid for Clinton at this point,\u201d while he expects Florida, North Carolina and Ohio will be much closer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Clinton has a polling lead in North Carolina, while Trump has an advantage in Iowa and Ohio, with Florida essentially tied, according to a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Ohio, the number of early ballots requested and returned has lagged what they were at the same point in 2012 statewide and in key counties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key County<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Ohio county where Trump held his national convention in July is presenting the greatest concern for Democrats so far. Clinton needs to generate a large advantage in Cuyahoga, home to Cleveland and a Democratic stronghold that\u2019s the state\u2019s most populous county, to offset Republican votes elsewhere. In 2012, Obama won by 256,613 votes in Cuyahoga, part of a statewide margin of 166,272.<\/span><\/p>\n

Early-vote requests by Democrats in Cuyahoga County, however, are down 35 percent compared with the same point in 2012, and ballots returned are off by 31 percent, according to data from the county board of elections. Republicans are running slightly ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n

The voting in Cuyahoga, Republicans say, shows a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and that spells trouble for her, in part because 30 percent of county residents are black, a key Democratic voting bloc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Democrats say it\u2019s misleading to compare this year with 2012 because there are five fewer days of early voting. They say in-person and voting by mail numbers are increasing — and there\u2019s still a final weekend of in-person voting, when churches organize \u201csouls to the polls\u201d efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Back to Ohio<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Clinton is scheduled to be in Cleveland Friday to join the rapper Jay Z for a get-out-the-vote event. She\u2019s expected to return to the Buckeye State on Sunday for the final day of early in-person voting.<\/span><\/p>\n

Numbers for Democrats are more encouraging in Columbus and surrounding Franklin County, where ballot returns from Democrats are up 74 percent compared with 36 percent for Republicans from the same point in 2012, the local data shows.<\/span><\/p>\n

While election-law changes in some states can make comparing numbers this year with 2012 problematic, that isn\u2019t the case in the battleground state of Iowa, where Republicans are closer to being on their pace of four years ago than Democrats.<\/span><\/p>\n

All the Ways This Election Day Will Be Different: QuickTake Q&A<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Republicans in Iowa had cast 174,452 ballots through Wednesday, while Democrats had completed 217,054, according to data from the secretary of state\u2019s office. Both parties are trailing their pace of four years ago, although more so in the case of the Democrats. Republicans have returned 96.9 percent as many ballots when compared to 2012, while Democrats have only completed 89.8 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n

The proportion of early votes returned by people registered as independent or non-partisan is harder to use for election forecasting. In Iowa, that group has returned 110,975 ballots, down from 135,547 at this point in 2012.<\/span><\/p>\n

In another potential positive sign for Trump in the state, Republican ballots completed in Iowa\u2019s 4th congressional district are running essentially even with 2012. The district, home to Representative Steve King, is the most conservative in the state. Democratic ballots returned from the area are down, from 46,871 in 2012 to 39,819 now.<\/span><\/p>\n

In North Carolina, registered Democrats account for almost 43 percent of the 2.3 million early votes cast as of Wednesday, compared with 32 percent for Republicans and 25 percent for unaffiliated voters, according to the state board of elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

Running Behind<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

But Democrats are running slightly behind the number of accepted in-person and mail ballots cast at the same point in the 2012 election — in which Obama lost the state to Romney by 2 percentage points — while Republicans are running 13 percent ahead, according to J. Michael Bitzer, a political-science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turnout by blacks is also down by 11 percent, compared with an increase of 20 percent for whites, in part because voting changes by the Republican-controlled legislature and governor that limited the number of polling sites during the first week of early voting, Bitzer said.<\/span><\/p>\n

While black voters are making steady headway in eating into their deficit compared to 2012, early in-person voting ends on Saturday. The question will be whether Democrats shift to getting more black voters to show up on Election Day, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another variable this year is a 44 percent increase from 2012 so far in early ballots cast by unaffiliated voters, the fasting-growing bloc in the state, Bitzer said. Almost 40 percent of all registered voters under the age of 35 are unaffiliated, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Both Clinton and Trump campaigned in North Carolina on Thursday, and Obama was there on Wednesday, saying the \u201cfate of the world is teetering and you, North Carolina, are going to have to make sure that we push it in the right direction.\u2019\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri said cutting the number of early vote sites in North Carolina has hurt the campaign\u2019s ability to get early ballots from blacks voters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the number of in-person votes from blacks doubled last weekend and is now exceeding comparable daily totals from 2012, Palmieri said. The campaign is also ahead of where Democrats were in 2012 in Florida votes cast, she said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe still have a lot of work to do,\u2019\u2019 Palmieri told reporters aboard the campaign plane on Wednesday. \u201cBut we feel good about what we\u2019ve seen in Florida and in North Carolina the last few days.\u2019\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Republicans say they are pleased with early voting trends. They think Democrats will struggle to match Obama\u2019s performance in early balloting, while they\u2019ll exceed what Republican Mitt Romney did four years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe momentum is definitely with Mr. Trump right now,\u2019\u2019 Chris Carr, the Republican National Committee\u2019s political director, told reporters earlier this week.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:-\u00a0http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/politics\/articles\/2016-11-04\/trump-shows-early-voting-strength-in-ohio-iowa-in-closing-days<\/span><\/p>\n

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