{"id":14332,"date":"2016-11-03T04:50:21","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T04:50:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=14332"},"modified":"2016-11-03T04:50:21","modified_gmt":"2016-11-03T04:50:21","slug":"new-polls-show-hillary-clinton-leading-in-most-key-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/news\/new-polls-show-hillary-clinton-leading-in-most-key-states.html","title":{"rendered":"New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading In Most Key States"},"content":{"rendered":"

New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading In Most Key States<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Leading In Most Key States:-<\/strong> Political Twitter was a mess Wednesday afternoon, waiting for a single set of poll numbers. The highly respected Marquette University Law School Wisconsin poll could have framed the day\u2019s narrative about the state of the presidential race.<\/span><\/p>\n

Had the Marquette poll shown Republican nominee Donald Trump leading, tied, or even just close to Hillary Clinton, the Democratic panic narrative might have taken over the day, despite a plethora of polls in other states. In part, that\u2019s because Marquette is the gold standard Wisconsin poll. In <\/span>part it\u2019s because Wisconsin is one of <\/span>several states Trump probably needs to win, and gains there might indicate a watershed of support breaking loose for the GOP nominee.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the high anticipation was <\/span>largely because the election is six days away, and everyone is ready to freak out about something. After all, that makes for good ratings, right?<\/span><\/p>\n

Okay, it\u2019s not just about ratings. The polls do show that some states are close. But the level of panic that threatened to ensue if one poll showed Trump up in one state was baffling \u2015 especially considering the other high-quality polls out on Wednesday. It shows just how uncertain politicos think this election is.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet Clinton is in a better place than Barack Obama was at this point in 2012. In the HuffPost Pollster chart, Obama widened his lead to just 1.5 percentage points over Mitt Romney nationally \u2015 but that was good enough for Simon Jackman\u2019s HuffPost model and Nate Silver\u2019s FiveThirtyEight model to give Obama a 91 percent chance of winning. Obama\u2019s odds in the states were good enough that he was predicted to get 332 electoral votes (which is what he got).<\/span><\/p>\n

Clinton is currently about 6 points ahead of Trump in the HuffPost Pollster national chart, and our predictions give her 341 electoral votes. Assuming the polls haven\u2019t become fundamentally more error-prone than in 2012, a 98 percent certainty of her election makes sense \u2015 especially when compared with Obama\u2019s 91 percent certainty with only a fraction of that lead. Maybe there are reasons to think 2016 is more uncertain than 2012 was; it certainly has been an unconventional year. But we\u2019re trusting that pollsters have captured opinions reasonably well on average.<\/span><\/p>\n

And even if you don\u2019t listen to reason and want to freak out about polling numbers, Wisconsin is not the state <\/span>to freak out about. No poll on the HuffPost Pollster chart has ever shown Trump leading in Packerland. Marquette didn\u2019t change that trend on Wednesday \u2015 the poll showed Clinton leading by 6 points. The pollsters did note some effects from Friday\u2019s FBI announcement about more emails pertinent to Clinton\u2019s private server, but she had a strong enough lead that those effects didn\u2019t change the outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s looking like the case in most states, although a couple could flip to Trump. But not enough to change the outline of the race.<\/span><\/p>\n

New polls from CNN\/ORC in four states started the day on a mixed note for Clinton. Two of those showed Trump leading by 6 points in Nevada, and by 5 points in Arizona. Both are more pro-Trump than most other recent polls have been in those states, but Arizona is a traditionally red state, and Trump\u2019s lead in Nevada has wavered back and forth a few times this year. CNN\/ORC showed Clinton up 2 points in Florida, and by 4 points in Pennsylvania \u2015 both well in line with recent trends.<\/span><\/p>\n

Quinnipiac University released a set of four polls Wednesday afternoon, giving Clinton the edge by 1 point in Florida, 3 points in North Carolina, and 4 points in Pennsylvania. The only bad news for Clinton in that set: She trails by 5 points in Ohio.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, even without Marquette, it would have been a decent day for Clinton \u2015 nothing to imply that the race had dramatically turned toward Trump, which would have to happen soon if Trump is to win. The race remains as it was: Clinton is leading, with a very strong chance of winning. Could there be an upset? Sure. But the polls indicate a solid Clinton lead, and I see no reason to think they\u2019re all wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:-\u00a0http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/state-polls-clinton-leading_us_581a8098e4b08f9841ad3a03<\/span><\/p>\n

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