{"id":14076,"date":"2016-10-26T11:35:25","date_gmt":"2016-10-26T11:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/?p=14076"},"modified":"2016-10-26T11:35:25","modified_gmt":"2016-10-26T11:35:25","slug":"donald-trump-two-points-ahead-of-hillary-clinton-in-poll-that-has-accurately-predicted-last-three-presidential-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/education\/donald-trump-two-points-ahead-of-hillary-clinton-in-poll-that-has-accurately-predicted-last-three-presidential-elections.html","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump two points ahead of Hillary Clinton in poll that has accurately predicted last three presidential elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Donald Trump two points ahead of Hillary Clinton in poll that has accurately predicted last three presidential elections<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong>Donald Trump two points ahead of Hillary Clinton in poll that has accurately predicted last three presidential elections:-<\/strong> Donald Trump is narrowly leading Hillary Clinton in the race to become US president according to a new poll, which has been the most accurate predictor of America&#8217;s last three elections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">The Investor&#8217;s Business Daily\/ TIPP tracking poll showed the Republican candidate with a two percentage point lead over Democrat Ms Clinton on Saturday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">But 16 days before the national vote, Ms Clinton had a 95 per cent chance of winning according to a Reuters\/Ipsos electoral-vote analysis, also released on Saturday. Another new poll had the Democrat soaring to a double-digit lead over Mr Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Analysts have said the results of the IBD\/TIPP poll are surprising. Statistics on how 11 national polls performed in the last three elections rank the survey top, but the likelihood of so many other polls all being wrong is extremely low.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">The IBD\/TIPP predictions suggested Mr Trump could secure 42.1 per cent of the vote, while Ms Clinton would only get 40.8 per cent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">The poll surveyed 783 likely voters. It reflected the rolling average of six days\u2019 worth of polling, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Respondents were asked how they would vote in a four way race, with Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein included. They got seven per cent and three per cent support respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">On Sunday morning Mr Trump tweeted a link to the poll results. Critics said he was &#8220;cherry-picking&#8221; polls to claim a lead he does not really have.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Remember &#8211; get out on November 8th &amp; VOTE <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/TrumpPence16?src=hash\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#TrumpPence16<\/a>. It is time to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/DrainTheSwamp?src=hash\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#DrainTheSwamp<\/a> &#8212; this is our last chance! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bnGcJUt7UL\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/t.co\/bnGcJUt7UL<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/790229932341354496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 23, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Less surprising were the demographic trends shown by the new poll.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">According to IBD\/TIPP data Mr Trump does better than Ms Clinton among men (48 per cent to 34 per cent), lower income voters (48 per cent to 35 per cent), rural voters (60 per cent to 22 per cent), and those who identify as religious.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Ms Clinton beats Mr Trump with women (46 per cent to 38 per cent), voters aged 18 to 44 (41 per cent to 34 per cent), the wealthy (47 per cent to 38 per cent), and investors (48 per cent to 38 per cent).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Ms Clinton has been described by US media as acting as if the presidential race is all but won, while Mr Trump himself admitted it was his \u201clast chance\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">On Friday The New York Times described Ms Clinton as \u201cworking to ensure a victory that is decisive enough to earn a mandate for her presidency.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">The Washington Post reported: \u201cEmboldened by polls predicting an electoral-college landslide in the presidential race, Clinton is shifting her strategy to lift up other Democrats coast to coast.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Although the new data appears to suggest Ms Clinton has assumed victory prematurely, polling experts have said it is extremely unlikely the IBD\/TIPP poll will prove to be correct. It is more likely polls showing Trump leading are outliers, either by statistical chance or by an error in their design.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Many things can go wrong in polling and even the stated margin of error only means 95 percent of the time the true value will be within that range. Five per cent of the time polls are expected to be way off.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Two other polls have shown Mr Trump leading in recent weeks: Rasmussen and USC Dornsife\/Los Angeles Times.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">The USC\/LA Times poll was expected to produce different results to most because of its unique methodology, the Huffington Post reported.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Researchers asked: \u201cWhat is the percent chance that if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else?\u201d, instead of the usual \u201cWho would you vote for?\u201d question.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">Meanwhile, Rasmussen polls often lean more Republican than other surveys. Some critics speculate this is intentional, but it could also result from the surveys landline-heavy automated polling methodology.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;\">The IBD\/TIPP poll has particularly surprised analysts because it is highly regarded and has previously performed extremely well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Source:-\u00a0http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/us-elections\/trump-poll-lead-us-presidential-election-hillary-clinton-investors-business-daily-a7377206.html<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"fb-background-color\">\n\t\t\t  <div \n\t\t\t  \tclass = \"fb-comments\" \n\t\t\t  \tdata-href = \"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/education\/donald-trump-two-points-ahead-of-hillary-clinton-in-poll-that-has-accurately-predicted-last-three-presidential-elections.html\"\n\t\t\t  \tdata-numposts = \"10\"\n\t\t\t  \tdata-lazy = \"true\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-colorscheme = \"light\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-order-by = \"social\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-mobile=true>\n\t\t\t  <\/div><\/div>\n\t\t  <style>\n\t\t    .fb-background-color {\n\t\t\t\tbackground: #ffffff !important;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t.fb_iframe_widget_fluid_desktop iframe {\n\t\t\t    width: 630px !important;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t  <\/style>\n\t\t  ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump two points ahead of Hillary Clinton in poll that has accurately predicted last three presidential elections Donald Trump two points ahead of Hillary Clinton in poll that has accurately predicted last three presidential elections:- Donald Trump is narrowly leading Hillary Clinton in the race to become US president [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[700],"tags":[8590],"class_list":["post-14076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-education","tag-donald-trump-two-points-ahead-of-hillary-clinton-in-poll-that-has-accurately-predicted-last-three-presidential-elections"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14076\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.biphoo.com\/bipnews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}